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Possible 2014 Domestic and International Political Developments

Happy New Year to everyone.  2014 should be another eventful year in domestic U.S. and international politics.  A key feature of U.S. politics this year, besides the November 2014 congressional elections, will be the ongoing saga of Obamacare.  The Obama Administration recently claimed this lame excuse of a program had recently reached 1 million registrants.  However, the program has experienced repeated technical and administrative problems and appears the preponderance of the registrants are older and sicker instead of the young and healthy the administration had been counting on.  The healthcare.gov website is expected to experience continuing problems with ensuring that customers have the ability to pay their premiums which is problematic given the security problems the website is likely to experience given the fact that its security infrastructure was not set up prior to the site’s October launch. There will continue to be court related cases concerning the law’s mandatory abortion coverage provisions. Later this spring the Supreme Court is expected to hear a case brought by arts and crafts retailer Hobby Lobby protesting the mandatory abortion drug coverage provisions of this statute.  Hobby Lobby, as an explicitly Christian company, opposes this provision and won an appeals court victory.  Other organizations with religious objections to the abortionist nature of Obamacare will be watching closely and some have reason to be hopeful thanks to a recent court ruling exempting Franciscan Health from the mandatory abortion provisions of this odious statute.  There will also be continuing revelations on the Obama Administration’s abuse of the IRS in targeting political opponents. There will be continued activity in the cultural wars front.  Indiana’s General Assembly is expected to approve legislation allowing its electorate to vote on a constitutional amendment in November restricting marriage to between a man and woman.  I look forward to actively campaigning on behalf of this proposal. Conservatives must also be strong in fighting the attempts of homosexual militants to coerce businesses and individuals opposed to that lifestyle to capitulate to their extortionate demands.  We should also legally and financially target organizations supporting these causes such as the ACLU, GLAAD, Freedom from Religion Foundation, Military  Religious Freedom Foundation, and Southern Poverty Law Center. New taxes for funding Obamacare will be an acute drain on small business’ ability to hire and strangle potential economic growth and job creation. Internationally, the Obama Administration will continue demonstrating weakness and strategic myopia.  Secretary of State John Kerry is on his way to Israel in yet another attempt to pursue the illusory chimera of Israeli-Palestinean peace.  Iran will come closer to detonating a nuclear weapon and we may see the remarkable site of Israeli-Gulf Arab cooperation to militarily prevent this.  China may continue funding efforts to build a new canal in Nicaragua that could have a significant impact on international maritime trade and increase Beijing’s geopolitical leverage in Central America.  China will also become increasingly assertive in its actions in the South China Sea against the U.S. and  countries allied with us in that region as China clearly understands that we are a declining geopolitical force under Obama.   Beijing will continue pressing expansionists maritime and airspace claims in this region as the following Naval War College study demonstrates.

This year will also see the drawdown of U.S. and ISAF forces in Afghanistan without clear evidence that the Afghans are capable of defeating the Taliban or that continued U.S. US and ISAF military presence is possible in that country due to the failure to reach a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Kabul.  Afghan President Hamid Karzai, an increasingly bizarre figure, has refused to approve a SOFA agreement and Afghanistan is likely to degenerate again into warring Islamist fiefdoms which may threaten regional stability.  A key lesson we should have learned from  history is that to transform a country into something with a chance of normalcy and stability is you have to decisively destroy the political, religious, and cultural perversions which cause it to become a threat to its neighbors. North Korea will continue threatening regional peace and its strives to develop its nuclear arsenal and dictator Kim Jong Un continues ruthlessly consolidating his power base.  Their will be continued strife in Syria between Bashir Assad and his thuggish regime and Al Qaida forces which have increased their power during the past year.  The U.S. ability to shape these events to advance out interests will be weakened by Obama Administration incompetence, congressional divisions, and potentially imprudent defense spending reductions.  U.S. foreign policy will also be haunted by the ongoing specter of the September 11, 2012 terrorist assault on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya and the Obama Administration’s continued efforts to cover up its criminal incompetence in this affair.  There will be continued domestic and international conflict over Edward Snowden’s treasonous leaking of National Security Agency operating methods though we must remember the NSA’s critical role in monitoring and preventing potential attacks on the U.S. and its interests through hostile forces use of contemporary telecommunications technology.  Congress should craft legislation requiring NSA metadata collection to be more precisely focused instead of taking the fishnet approach it currently follows. Those expecting an outbreak of widespread domestic political cooperation and international peace and comity this year will be highly disappointed.  A Hobbesian state of nature will characterize U.S. domestic and international politics in 2014.

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